838
AXPZ20 KNHC 241550
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUN 24 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1515 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF CLARION ISLAND (EP94):
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 18N116W OR ABOUT 80 NM WSW
OF CLARION ISLAND, ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE ACTIVE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 113W-120W. PEAK WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE
NEAR 25 KT WITH HIGHEST SEAS OF 7 FT. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM TODAY WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KT, AND BY THURSDAY IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS COOLER WATERS, ENDING ITS CHANCES FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM...50 PERCENT...CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 92W, MOVING WEST AROUND 20
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 90W-96W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 103W, SOUTH OF 17N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 98W-104W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 116W, SOUTH OF 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP94,
IS ALONG THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 18N116W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AT 08N83W
TO 11N106W TO 07N130W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N130W TO BEYOND
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 105W-112W AND FROM 00N-09N BETWEEN
125W-133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO NEAR-GALE N TO NE GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 7-9 FT. WINDS ARE SE TO E
FRESH TO STRONG WITH SEAS TO 7 FT WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST EP94. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS 5-6 FT IN S TO SW SWELL FOR PACIFIC
WATERS AND 1-3 FT OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN
98W-104W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS IS INDUCING
STRONG TO LOCALLY NEAR-GALE N TO NE GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PULSING MAINLY LATE
AT NIGHT AND MORNING ARE EXPECTED THEREAFTER THROUGH FRI.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MEXICAN OFFSHORES SHOULD BE
QUIESCENT.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
WINDS ARE NE FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH
SEAS 7-8 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER WITH SEAS OF
4-7 FT IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE NE PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
A GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION GAP WIND EVENT. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO
E WINDS SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN QUIESCENT UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. LARGE S SWELL MOVING
INTO THE EQUATORIAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON INVEST EP94.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH AT 38N151W EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 30N130W TO 23N112W. THE MODERATE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS FORCING ONLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES. ASIDE FROM WINDS FROM EP94, THE REMAINDER OF THE WINDS
ACROSS THE OPEN PACIFIC ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER. SEAS ARE 5-8 FT
IN MIXED N AND S TO SW SWELL. FOR CONVECTION, SEE SECTIONS ABOVE
ABOUT TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST ASIDE FROM EP94, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO FORM THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC BASIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCE IS NEAR 0 PERCENT THROUGH 48
HOURS, BUT IS MEDIUM...60 PERCENT...THROUGH 7 DAYS. ELSEWHERE,
LARGE SEAS DUE TO MIXED SW AND SE SWELL WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 8 FT SEAS SHOULD
REACH UP TO AT MOST 02N BEFORE DIMINISHING.
LANDSEA
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