653
WTPZ44 KNHC 011450
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 AM PDT WED JUL 01 2026
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E THIS MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGH/ITCZ.
A MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER
WAS STILL SOMEWHAT ELONGATED AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT, AND THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO REFLECT THIS.
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 28-34
KT, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 5 KT, AND THIS
MOTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS TO
THE EAST IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS
WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TURNS WESTWARD
INTO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND LIES BETWEEN THE SIMPLE AND
CORRECTED-CONSENSUS AIDS.
FOUR-E IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST LOW AND MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST,
AND FOUR-E IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT, WHICH IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY AIDS.
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY AS IT
MOVES NORTHWARD INTO COOLER WATERS. BY FRIDAY, INCREASING SHEAR AND
DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY 48 H, DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 14.8N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.6N 126.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.6N 126.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.6N 127.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 19.7N 129.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 20.7N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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