789
WTPZ44 KNHC 012039
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 PM PDT WED JUL 01 2026
A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CENTER, WITH A FEW 30-33 KT
WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF CENTER. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS 35 KT, AND VARIOUS OTHER OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 31-35 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA AND INCREASING
BANDING FEATURES, THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM
DOUGLAS WITHIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 35 KT.
DOUGLAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 350/6 KT. THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS TO THE EAST IN THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EAST PACIFIC. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 24 H AND LIES IN NEAR
HCCA, AND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND. TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK, A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND TURNS INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE FORECAST BEYOND 24 H HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE
RIGHT AND LIES AMONG VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOIST LOW AND MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY
HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND. AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, COOLER WATERS AND DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND
DOUGLAS MAY STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY THIS
WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST SHOWS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
48 H, DISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.7N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.7N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 19.7N 128.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/0600Z 20.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1800Z 22.5N 133.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER ADAMS/BEVEN
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