405
WTPZ44 KNHC 020232
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 PM PDT WED JUL 01 2026
CONVECTION IS INCREASING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF DOUGLAS, ALBEIT A
FAIR DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS, SO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 35 KT. DOUGLAS BASICALLY HAS THE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LEFT TO INTENSIFY BEFORE IT
ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR, HIGHER SHEAR, AND COOLER SSTS. THUS THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A BRIEF PEAK AT 12 H AND THEN A SLOW
WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
PRODUCING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFTER 36 H, SO THAT WILL BE THE
EXPECTED TIME DOUGLAS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE
TO THE PRIOR INTENSITY FORECAST.
DOUGLAS CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THIS MOTION IS
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE STORM MOVES BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. ON FRIDAY, A
NORTHWEST TURN IS ANTICIPATED AS THE THEN WEAKER SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE IS THAT
MUCH OF THE SKILLFUL GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THIS SYSTEM INTACT FOR
LONGER DUE TO THE NEARBY TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THE SYSTEM GAINS
MORE LATITUDE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO VERY
HOSTILE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS, BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE GOOGLE
DEEPMIND AND NOAA CORRECTED-CONSENSUS HCCA MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 20.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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