953
WTPZ44 KNHC 020835
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 AM PDT THU JUL 02 2026
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
DOUGLAS, WITH A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS RANGE BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS, WITH THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINING T2.5/35 KT.
UNFORTUNATELY, SCATTEROMETER MISSED THE SYSTEM TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD
HAVE HELPED WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. GIVEN THE
LATEST ESTIMATES, THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND 6 KT. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ON FRIDAY, A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
THAN WEST IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
AND LIES BETWEEN THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS
AIDS.
DOUGLAS HAS ONLY 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DRIER MID-LEVEL RH, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER, BY TONIGHT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AND DOUGLAS IS
FORECAST TO STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN ABOUT 24–36
HOURS AND SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT PERIOD.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KELLY
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