689
WTPZ44 KNHC 021432
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
800 AM PDT THU JUL 02 2026
GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION, THE CONVECTION
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND LOCATED MAINLY IN A NEARLY LINEAR BAND TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND GIVEN
THE RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/5 KT. A NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 12 H OR SO AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREES THAT DOUGLAS SHOULD TURN GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.
DOUGLAS IS NOW PASSING OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS EXPERIENCING
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER, AND DRY AIR IS
LIKELY TO ENTRAIN INTO THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS, THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DOUGLAS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING A DEPRESSION SOMETIME TONIGHT, A REMNANT
LOW SOMETIME ON FRIDAY, AND DISSIPATING BY 96 H. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 17.4N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 19.5N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 20.6N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 21.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0000Z 22.3N 130.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 23.1N 131.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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