205
WTPZ44 KNHC 022031
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042026
200 PM PDT THU JUL 02 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF DOUGLAS DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE
CENTER. THE VARIOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE, AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT SHOWED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 345/6 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO, AND INDEED MUCH OF IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER, THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SHOWS LESS OF A TURN THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY IS ON
THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY 48-72 H. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
LIES NEAR THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.
DOUGLAS IS NOW PASSING OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS EXPERIENCING
10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER, AND THE CYCLONE
IS ALSO LIKELY TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR. BASED ON THESE FACTORS, DOUGLAS
SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STOP PRODUCING CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW TOMORROW BY THE 24 H FORECAST POINT, WITH THE REMNANT
LOW PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 18.0N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 18.8N 127.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.0N 128.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 04/0600Z 21.0N 128.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 21.8N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 22.6N 130.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 23.4N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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