337
AXPZ20 KNHC 131528
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO: A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH BELOW. CURRENTLY,
WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KT WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SEAS OF TO 8
FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 79W/80W, NORTH OF 03N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 101W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION, WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 133W FROM 04N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N132W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N90W. SEGMENTS OF
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N90W TO 09N98W, AND FROM 10N105W TO
05N120W TO 11N130W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 13N135W TO
BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 105W AND
110W, AND FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO
STRONG NE TO E WINDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FROM OFF
WESTERN OAXACA TO EASTERN GUERRERO, ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THAT AREA. ROUGH SEAS ACCOMPANY
THESE WINDS. BROAD RIDGING IS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU,
ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT, INCREASING TO
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE WEEK, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N.
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS PER
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS. AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
ARE DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TODAY DUE TO THE DEPARTING PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W.
CONCURRENT ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN
THIS AREA, NEAR 15N130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 4-6 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF
07N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS
MONITORING SEVERAL AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THREE OF
THOSE DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION. ONE
IS A TROPICAL WAVE A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS. THE SECOND AREA IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, WHICH
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PRIMARILY EAST OF ITS CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ITS DEVELOPMENT CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE DECREASING WITH A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH 7 DAYS. FINALLY,
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT FOR FRESHENING WINDS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN OPEN WATERS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, RESULTING IN BUILDING SEAS TO ROUGH.
CHRISTENSEN/LEWITSKY
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