747
AXPZ20 KNHC 132148
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 13 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO: LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ABOUT
240 NM S-SW OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO, ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE. STRONG
TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS, ROUGH SEAS, AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ONGOING OFF GUERRERO AND WESTERN OAXACA. THE WINDS AND SEAS
WERE PARTIALLY SAMPLED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER
SATELLITE PASSES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD, REMAINING OFF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. EXPECT
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY
TUE NIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF
APPROACH TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 80W, NORTH OF 02N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 102W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION, WITH
ADDITIONAL DETAILS ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION REGARDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 133W FROM 04N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 5-10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N133W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 07N90W. SEGMENTS OF
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N90W TO 09N98W, AND FROM 08N105W TO
06N125W TO 11N130W. THE MONSOON TROUGH RESUMES FROM 12N133W TO
BEYOND 10N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS ACTIVE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND
110W, AND FROM 12N TO 25N BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION OFF SOUTHWEST MEXICO, A RECENT SCATTEROMETER
SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD RIDGING IS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND 3-5 FT SEAS
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE IMPACTS OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
DURING THE WEEK, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG
E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 12N. WINDS ARE LIGHT TO
GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS PER OVERNIGHT
SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS. AREAS OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH ARE DESCRIBED
ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TODAY DUE TO THE DEPARTING PRESENCE
OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH E TO SE
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 133W.
EARLIER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT IN THIS
AREA, NEAR 15N130W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS 4-6 FT PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 07N
BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 133W DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, AND FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5-7
FT THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE.
EXPECT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT
SEAS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND REACH AS
FAR NORTH AS 10N THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
CHRISTENSEN
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