039
AXPZ20 KNHC 140308
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96): A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER AT
14N103.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 106W, AND WITHIN 660 NM
IN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE POSITION. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 30
KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, STAYING OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF MEXICO. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY TUE NIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W, NORTH OF 01N TO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN COSTA RICA, NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 103.5W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD TO
THE COAST OF SW MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. ANY
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION, WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS ALSO IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134W FROM 04N TO 19N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS
ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N134W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION
IS DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N73W TO 09N86W. SEGMENTS OF
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N86W TO 11N102W, THEN FROM 12N106W TO
06N125W TO 11N133W, THEN FROM 12N135W TO 09.5N140W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86.5W, FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 113W AND 120W, AND
WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION OFF SOUTHWEST MEXICO, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BROAD RIDGING IS EVIDENT
ELSEWHERE OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1-3
FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE IMPACTS OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUE NIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
DURING THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING
THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS
AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N.
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS PER
OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS. AREAS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH
ARE DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA DUE TO THE DEPARTING
PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH
OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR 14.5N124W WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS 4-6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH SE
WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 06N BETWEEN 97W AND 120W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ FROM 19N126W TO
11N127W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
16.5N TO 24N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 134W DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, AND FURTHER TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5-7
FT THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER NORTH. ELSEWHERE,
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE THROUGH MID
WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FARTHER
SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS WILL CROSS THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND REACH AS FAR NORTH AS 10N
THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
LEWITSKY
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