586
AXPZ20 KNHC 140801
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0700 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96): A TROPICAL WAVE IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 101W AND 108W. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD, STAYING OFFSHORE
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY TUE NIGHT, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES
ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88.5W, NORTH OF 01N TO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR AND WESTERN HONDURAS INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA, MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 93W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 104.5W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD
TO THE COAST OF SW MEXICO IN COLIMA, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 TO 15 KT. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134.5W FROM 04N TO 20N,
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA
THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS
DISSIPATED WITHIN THAT LAST FEW HOURS. ANY NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74W TO 09N88W. SEGMENTS OF
THE ITCZ ARE FROM 07.5N89W TO 10N103.5W, THEN FROM 10N105W TO
05N122W TO 13N133W, THEN FROM 13.5N135W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACTIVE WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM
17N127W TO 10N126.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 17N TO 25N BETWEEN 123W AND 129W, AND
FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 129W AND 133W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION OFF SOUTHWEST MEXICO, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY A RECENT OSCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS. BROAD RIDGING IS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING
OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES AND
3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT LIGHT BREEZES AND 1-3 FT SEAS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE IMPACTS OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE, THE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO
MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS SEEN BY A
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY
WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS. ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR
AND GUATEMALA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND ARE
DESCRIBED ABOVE, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT ALONG
WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 134.5W ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS 4-6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR MODERATE TO
FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 100W AND
120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ AS DESCRIBED
WITH CONVECTION ABOVE.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 134.5W DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN
WITH SEAS 5-7 FT THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER
NORTH. ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND
TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
AND 5-7 FT SEAS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS 10N THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
LEWITSKY
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