214
AXPZ20 KNHC 141611
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO (EP96): A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
106W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING FROM 10.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W, AND IS
FORMING INTO BANDS THIS MORNING, SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IN ADDITION, A 1007 LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 14.5N 106W. PEAK WINDS TO 30 KT
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM ACROSS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS
LOW, WHERE SEAS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM N AND E OF THE LOW CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, STAYING WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST
OF MEXICO. IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS BY TUE EVENING, AS THE LOW PRESSURE MAKES ITS CLOSEST
POINT OF APPROACH TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W, NORTH OF 03N TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD AT 20 KT. CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W, IDENTIFIED AS INVEST EP96, AND
DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 134.5W FROM 04N TO 20N, MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N74.5W TO 10N83W TO 08N88W.
SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ ARE FROM 07.5N90W TO 10N103.5W, THEN FROM
10.5N110.5W TO 06.5N125W TO 09.5N130W, THEN FROM 13.5N136W TO
10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE FROM 09N TO
15N BETWEEN 88W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 14N BETWEEN 108W AND 113W, FROM 02N TO 14N
BETWEEN 113W AND 128W, AND FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS AND SEAS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION OFF SOUTHWEST MEXICO, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS SEEN BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA. BROAD RIDGING PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF
BAJA BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE NW OF EP96. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, AND LIGHT BREEZES WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, IN ADDITION TO THE IMPACTS OF THE DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE...EP96...DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
ABOVE, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST
WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
NEAR 90W, AS SEEN BY OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER DATA,
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N.
SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO AND 5 TO 6 FT
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED
OVER THE AREA WATERS THIS MORNING.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AT 134.5W ALONG WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ
ALONG 127W-128W, SOUTH OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 134.5W WILL DIMINISH THROUGH WED AS THE WAVE SHIFTS
WEST OF 140W BY THU. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5-7 FT
THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE...EP96...DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE. EXPECT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT MOVES NORTHWEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. FARTHER SOUTH, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS
AND 5-7 FT SEAS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 100W AND 120W AND
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS 10N THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS WEEK SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
STRIPLING
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