709
WTPZ45 KNHC 142040
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026
OVER THE PAST DAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DISTURBANCE WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
(96E) HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T-2.5/35 KT. A RECENT ASCAT-C PASS
SHOWS A CLOSED, ALBEIT SOMEWHAT ELONGATED SURFACE CIRCULATION,
WITH WIND SPEEDS THAT SUPPORT A 30-KT INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY
HAS SHOWN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS,
AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE LOW NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE, ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ARE BEING
INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/16 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST, WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF
THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND THE TVCN SIMPLE CONSENSUS
MODELS.
THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVELING THROUGH VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A RELATIVELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
AS THE CYCLONE WORKS ON DEVELOPING A CORE. AFTER THAT TIME, STEADY
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MIDDLE
AND HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUITE, IN BETWEEN THE
WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE STRONGER STATISTICAL MODELS.
SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, IT
IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN WHAT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY SHOWS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 14.8N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 14.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 15.4N 118.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 19.7N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 22.2N 126.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER HAGEN/KATZ
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