591
AXPZ20 KNHC 142132
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 14 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2040 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E: THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, HAS
CONTINUED TO SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS
NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH PEAK SEAS TO 12 FT, OR 3.5 M.
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO
15.5N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W, WHILE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE FROM
05.5N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 104W AND 115W. FIVE-E IS MOVING WESTWARD
AT 16 KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS STILL ATTEMPTING TO BETTER
ORGANIZE ITS INNER CORE. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT, AND THEN INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT
MOVES THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH THU NIGHT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
IN A DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING,
AS THE DEPRESSION MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W, NORTH OF 03N TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 108W, IDENTIFIED AS INVEST EP96, HAS
ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E, AND IS DESCRIBED
ABOVE IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 135W FROM 04N TO 20N, MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 08N88W, THEN RESUMES
FROM 14.5N136W TO BEYOND 11.5N140W. SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ ARE
FROM 07.5N90W TO 10N105W, THEN FROM 09N110W TO 10N131W, THEN FROM
13.5N136W TO 10.5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ACTIVE
FROM 08.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 89W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 01.5N TO 12N BETWEEN
115W AND 129W, AND FROM 05.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 129W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTEND WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF T.D. FIVE-E THIS AFTERNOON, AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS
OF COLIMA AND JALISCO, AND APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND. SEAS
ACROSS THIS AREA ARE 6 TO 12 FT. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, FRESH TO
STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA
BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE NW OF T.D. FIVE-E. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, AND LIGHT BREEZES WITH 1-3 FT SEAS INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.D. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED MOVE WESTERLY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, ROUGH SEAS AND
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW
TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO NEAR 90W, AS SEEN BY AFTERNOON SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE NORTH OF
10N TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO AND 5 TO 6 FT ELSEWHERE. WINDS ARE
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. MODERATE
SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 91W CONTINUES ACROSS THE
FAR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS WEST OF 89W.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE
PAPAGAYO REGION MAINLY AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE
LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE AT 135W, AND EXTEND NORTHWARD TO 28N, AND PREVAIL
BETWEEN 17N AND 24N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 120W. SEAS WEST OF THE
WAVE ARE NEAR 8 FT, AND ARE 5 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT FOR
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS AND 5-7 FT SEAS SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN
100W AND 120W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ
ALONG 128W-129W, SOUTH OF 18N.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 135W WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS
WEST OF 140W BY THU. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5-7 FT
THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, T.D. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 14.9N 111.4W AS
A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT, MOVE TO NEAR 15.1N 116.2W WED NIGHT,
REACH NEAR 16.2N 119.5W THU NIGHT AS A HURRICANE, AND MOVE TO
NEAR 19.7N 124.1W FRI NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
STRIPLING
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