943
AXPZ20 KNHC 150029
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0000 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E: THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS, HAS
CONTINUED TO SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS
NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH PEAK SEAS TO 14 TO 15 FT, OR 4.5
M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 11N
TO 18N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W. FIVE-E IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, AND IS STILL ATTEMPTING TO BETTER ORGANIZE ITS
INNER CORE. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT, AND THEN INTENSIFY STEADILY THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING HURRICANE
STRENGTH THU NIGHT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
IN A DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS NEAR THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BEGINNING THIS EVENING THROUGH WED MORNING,
AS THE DEPRESSION MAKES ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W, NORTH OF 03N TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 108W IS NO LONGER ANALYZED DUE
TO T.D. 5-E.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 135W FROM 04N TO 20N, MOVING SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 KT. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N75W TO 08N88W, THEN RESUMES
FROM 14.5N136W TO BEYOND 11.5N140W. SEGMENTS OF THE ITCZ ARE
FROM 07.5N90W TO 10N105W, THEN FROM 09N110W TO 10N131W, THEN FROM
13.5N136W TO 10.5N140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SOUTH
OF 20N AND WEST 105W TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF T.D. FIVE-E THIS
AFTERNOON, AND IMPACTING THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF COLIMA AND
JALISCO, AND APPROACHING SOCORRO ISLAND. SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA
ARE 6 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. A
BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE OF BAJA BAJA CALIFORNIA
AND TO THE NW OF T.D. FIVE-E. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS, AND LIGHT BREEZES WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS INSIDE THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, T.D. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED MOVE WESTERLY TONIGHT
THROUGH WED MORNING AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, ROUGH SEAS AND
PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N
WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MAINLY GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS MIDWEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION TO NEAR 90W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 10N TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5
TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, LOCALLY FRESH NEAR THE AZUERO
PENINSULA. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT,
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA TONIGHT
AND AGAIN WED NIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS
IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
137W, FROM 06N TO 26N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT
IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR WINDS ARE FOUND FROM ROUGHLY 15N TO 22N
BETWEEN 114W AND 130W, AS WELL AS SOUTH OF 09N BETWEEN 108W AND
122W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN MAINLY SOUTHERLY SWELL SOUTH OF 09N
BETWEEN 102W AND 120W, AND 4 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELL ACROSS THE
REMINDER OF THE WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 137W WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS
WEST OF 140W BY THU. NE WINDS WILL FRESHEN WITH SEAS 5 TO 7 FT
THEREAFTER NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 125W BETWEEN BROAD LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH RIDING FARTHER NORTH.
ELSEWHERE, T.D. FIVE-E IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 14.9N 111.4W AS
A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT, MOVE TO NEAR 15.1N 116.2W WED NIGHT,
REACH NEAR 16.2N 119.5W THU NIGHT AS A HURRICANE, AND MOVE TO
NEAR 19.7N 124.1W FRI NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.
LEWITSKY
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