273
WTPZ45 KNHC 150233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM MST TUE JUL 14 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND
ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T2.5/35 KT,
WHILE OBJECTIVE ADT AND AIDT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE HOVERING AROUND
30 KT. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IN THE
OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATED AT 275/14 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
RIDGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWESTWARD. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND
TRACK AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 14.7N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 14.9N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.0N 114.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.8N 118.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.8N 121.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 22.8N 127.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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