280
WTPZ45 KNHC 150836
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OVER AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WITH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES AS
COLD AS -85 DEGREES C. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO T3.0/45 KT, WHILE OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN INTO THE 34 TO 40 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE
DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT, MAKING THE CYCLONE
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA.
ELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD, WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED
AT 275/13 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD SUPPORT THIS WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 H.
THEREAFTER, A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES,
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT BEGINS TO STEADILY DIVERGE
THEREAFTER. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEPMIND TRACK
AIDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, A PERIOD OF
RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THESE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGHER END
OF THE GUIDANCE, WITH ELIDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS, DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
WEAKENING TREND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 14.9N 111.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 15.0N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 15.1N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.5N 118.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 18.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.9N 125.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.3N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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