406
WTPZ45 KNHC 151438
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM MST WED JUL 15 2026
ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AFTER A NOCTURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER, EARLIER
DATA FROM THE NEW AMSR-3 MICROWAVE IMAGER SHOWED THAT THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS TILTED WITH HEIGHT, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
LOCATED NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T3.0/45 KT, AND THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED BETWEEN
39-44 KT. THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY, ELIDA POSITION WAS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK, BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING
WESTWARD AT 280/13 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA
SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE DAY. AFTERWARDS,
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT
GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES NOTABLY BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE NORTH OVER THE FIRST 24 H, DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION
ADJUSTMENT, BUT CONVERGES CLOSE TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK. THIS
FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE
MEAN (GDMI).
THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER A VERY WARM OCEAN SEA-SURFACE
(30 C) AND EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, ELIDA'S
VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS TILTED TO THE SOUTH WITH HEIGHT, AND SHEAR
ANALYSIS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THUS, SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE ON THE GRADUAL SIDE. ASSUMING ELIDA
BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND DEVELOPS AN INNER CORE, A FASTER
RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN 36-48 H. AFTER 60 H, THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK THAN THE PRIOR CYCLE, BUT STILL REMAINS ON
THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY AIDS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE
LATEST GDMI AND HCCA AIDS, BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B
GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 15.4N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 15.5N 115.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 15.9N 117.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 16.4N 119.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 18/0000Z 18.2N 122.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 19.5N 124.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 22.0N 126.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN/KATZ
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