877
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 15/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 14 TO 15 FT OR 4.5 M. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER,
EXCEPT 210 NM SE QUADRANT. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO FOLLOWED BY A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. ELIDA IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W, NORTH OF 03N TO ACROSS THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE
MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 139W/140W FROM 04N TO 19N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS NOTED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED FROM 07N TO 14N W OF 137W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO 07N90W TO 10N105W, THEN
RESUMES WEST OF T.S. ELIDA FROM 11N117W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND
12N139W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES, SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND FROM 0-4N TO 06N E OF 80W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM
06N TO 15N BETWEEN 96W AND 105W, FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 117W
AND 130W, AND FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CENTERED 495 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF T.S. ELIDA ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE 8 TO 12 FT WHILE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT EXTEND
WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST,
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC,
WHERE SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE
OF BAJA BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE NW OF ELIDA. THIS PATTERN IS
SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS, AND LIGHT WINDS WITH 1 TO 3 FT SEAS INSIDE
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 8 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40
KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001
MB. ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 115.3W THIS EVENING, 15.9N 117.6W
THU MORNING, 16.4N 119.5W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 17.1N 121.4W FRI MORNING, 18.2N 122.8W FRI EVENING, AND
19.5N 124.2W SAT MORNING. ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 22.0N 126.9W EARLY SUN. OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THU, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WINDS ARE INCREASING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, STRONGEST DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT
TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 92W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 09N TO OFFSHORE NORTHERN NICARAGUA. SEAS ARE 5
TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS, LOCALLY FRESH IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE THE
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT,
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE
EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CENTERED 495 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS ARE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE WITH
AXIS ALONG 138W/139W, WITH A WEAK 1010 MB LOW ANALYZED ALONG THE
TROPICAL WAVE AT 13N. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 FT IN THIS AREA. SIMILAR
WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 116W AND 130W.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND 5 TO 8 FT SEAS ARE
FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ELIDA BETWEEN 107W AND
127W. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN A MIX OF SWELLS ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS NEAR 15.4N 113.5W AT 8
AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1001 MB. ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 15.5N 115.3W THIS EVENING, 15.9N
117.6W THU MORNING, 16.4N 119.5W THU EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 17.1N 121.4W FRI MORNING, 18.2N 122.8W FRI
EVENING, AND 19.5N 124.2W SAT MORNING. ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.0N 126.9W EARLY SUN.
GR
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