665
WTPZ45 KNHC 152040
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM MST WED JUL 15 2026
THE STRUCTURE OF ELIDA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BASED ON
SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME DRY AIR
AND A BIT OF MID-LEVEL SHEAR ARE IMPACTING THE GROWTH OF ELIDA AT
THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, BASED ON THE IMPROVEMENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY, THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE REMAINING AT T3.0/45 KT, AND
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING WIDELY FROM 38 TO 57 KT, THE
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT.
BASED ON THE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS, ELIDA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 280/12 KT. A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. AFTERWARDS, THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ELIDA, ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYNOPTIC
WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW ELIDA TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK AS IT GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON, BUT ACROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES
NOTABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND EAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
THE GDMI, HCCA, AND TVCN TRACK GUIDANCE.
THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH PLENTY OF
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
UNDERCUTTING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, AND THIS COULD BE IMPORTING
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH. THUS, SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW. A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IN
36-48 H IF THE STORM DEVELOPS A INNER CORE. AFTER 60 H, THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL CROSS THE 26 C ISOTHERM WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED TO
BEGIN BY THIS WEEKEND. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
THE SAME 80-KT PEAK AS THE PRIOR CYCLE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF HCCA, BUT STILL HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 15.7N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.8N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 16.3N 118.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.0N 119.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.9N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/0600Z 19.0N 122.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 25.4N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER KATZ/PAPIN
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