836
AXPZ20 KNHC 152113
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 15 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 114.6W AT 15/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 14 TO 16 FT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER, EXCEPT 210 NM
SE QUADRANT. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST, AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A
SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 96W, NORTH OF 03N TO ACROSS SE MEXICO,
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR COAST OF COLOMBIA AT 10N76W TO 06N90W TO 10N105W, THEN
RESUMES WEST OF T.S. ELIDA FROM 11N117W TO 09N130W TO BEYOND
12N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W, FROM 05N TO 17N
BETWEEN 100W AND 110W, FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W,
AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF T.S. ELIDA ARE REACHING THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS ARE 8 TO 12 FT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE
OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND TO THE NW OF ELIDA. THIS PATTERN
IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS AND 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS GENERATING
SOME CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 15.8N 116.1W
THU MORNING, 16.3N 118.2W THU AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 17.0N 119.8W FRI MORNING, 17.9N 121.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 19.0N
122.9W SAT MORNING, AND 20.2N 124.2W SAT AFTERNOON. ELIDA WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.8N 126.7W SUN AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THU, ALLOWING FOR
GENTLE TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE
SEAS IN MIXED SWELL. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST FRI WHILE GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE GULF.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH FRI NIGHT, STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER
THIS WEEK SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 09N. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW
SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT IN
THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS NW OF T.S. ELIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE ROUGHLY
N OF 18N AND W OF 120W WHERE SEAS ARE MODERATE. LATEST SATELLITE
DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 118W AND 125W WITH SEAS UP TO 10 FT
BASED ON ALTIMETER DATA. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT IN A MIX
OF SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 15.8N 116.1W
THU MORNING, 16.3N 118.2W THU AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 17.0N 119.8W FRI MORNING, 17.9N 121.5W FRI AFTERNOON, 19.0N
122.9W SAT MORNING, AND 20.2N 124.2W SAT AFTERNOON. ELIDA WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.8N 126.7W SUN AFTERNOON.
GR
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