796
WTPZ45 KNHC 160238
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ELIDA HAS IMPROVED THIS EVENING.
EARLIER AMSR-2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED A FORMATIVE INNER
CORE COULD BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS, NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED MUCH
CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION (T3.5/55 KT) AND UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. THE CENTER OF
ELIDA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES
USING 20 UTC OSCAT WIND DATA AND THE 37 GHZ AMSR-2 IMAGERY.
ELIDA IS MOVING WESTWARD (275 DEGREES) AT 11 KT WHILE BEING STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN
THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT, ELIDA IS
PREDICTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
CROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD AT LATER FORECAST PERIODS, OVERALL THE
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE UPDATED
NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION FROM 48-120 H, FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA)
AND IN THE DIRECTION OF THE LATEST GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
IF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE
STORM, ELIDA MAY BE ABLE TO SOLIDIFY AN INNER CORE AND QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOIST, UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER 29-30 C WATERS, AND THE UPDATED
NHC FORECAST SHOWS ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 H. THIS FORECAST TRENDS ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE, GENERALLY CLOSE TO HCCA BUT LOWER
THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AIDS (SHIPS/LGEM). ELIDA WILL
REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS BY SATURDAY AND THEN ENCOUNTER A DRIER,
HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, STEADY
WEAKENING IS PREDICTED FROM 60-120 H, AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 15.4N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.2N 118.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 23.1N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 25.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER REINHART
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