319
WTPZ45 KNHC 160832
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE
ORGANIZATION OF ELIDA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE
CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINS T3.5/55 KT, WHILE
OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 47 TO 55 KT. GIVEN
THE STEADY SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THESE ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD, OR 275/10 KT. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL
MOTION THROUGH THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.
THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 H, THEN TO THE RIGHT THEREAFTER, TO
BETTER ALIGN WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS (HCCA) AND THE LATEST
GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DEEP MOISTURE, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER, THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
WHILE ENCOUNTERING A DRIER, HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 15.6N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 15.7N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.4N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.3N 121.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 18.4N 122.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 19.8N 123.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.2N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 24.3N 127.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 26.6N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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