884
WTPZ45 KNHC 161435
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
THERE HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ELIDA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER, ALTHOUGH THESE TOPS
ARE IN A RECTANGULAR BLOCK RATHER THAN A CURVED BAND. A JUST-
RECEIVED GMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION WAS
LOCATED PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND, WHILE THERE WAS SOME
CURVATURE IT WAS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE, AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF CALIFORNIA. DUE TO THIS,
ELIDA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO
THROUGH 72 H, BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AFTER THAT. THE MODELS THAT
FORECAST ELIDA TO REMAIN VERTICALLY DEEP, SUCH AS THE GFS AND THE
HAFS MODELS, SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK, WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE
SHEARS THE CYCLONE APART AND KEEPS THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ELIDA WILL BE WEAKENING
OVER COLD WATER BY THAT TIME, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE
MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 H, AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AT 120 H.
ELIDA HAS 36-48 H OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LEFT BEFORE THE FORECAST
TRACK HAS IT REACHING DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS A CAUTION FLAG ABOUT HOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING MIGHT OCCUR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36-48 H. AFTER THAT, COOLER WATERS AND
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING, AND ELIDA
IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 H. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH
24 H, AND IT LIES NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BETWEEN
36-120 H.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 118.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.7N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 121.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 19.2N 123.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 20.6N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 22.2N 125.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 25.2N 127.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 27.7N 129.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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