375
AXPZ20 KNHC 161601
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 117.4W AT 16/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 18 FT OR 6.0 M. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE SEMICIRCLE
AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 114W
AND 122W. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND ELIDA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY BEFORE
REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 100W, NORTH OF 03N TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. A CLUSTER
OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 07N77W
TO 06N80W TO 08N85W TO 07N95W TO 12N109W, THEN RESUMES SOUTHWEST
OF ELIDA FROM 13N120W TO 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
03N TO 12N E OF 110W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 15N W OF 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 600 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, BUT MAINLY CLARION ISLAND. SEAS NEAR THE ISLANDS AND
WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF CLARION ISLAND ARE 8 TO 12 FT. MEANWHILE,
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION
WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. A BROAD RIDGE PREVAILS ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING MAINLY
GENTLE NW TO N WINDS AND 4 TO 7 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE
WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO
MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT PREVAIL. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IS GENERATING SOME
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA WATERS.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS PRESENT OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 16.0N 118.8W
THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.7N 120.4W FRI
MORNING, 17.9N 121.7W FRI EVENING, 19.2N 123.1W SAT MORNING,
20.6N 124.4W SAT EVENING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
22.2N 125.6W SUN MORNING. ELIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 25.2N 127.6W EARLY MON. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR GENTLE
TO MODERATE NW TO N WINDS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS IN
MIXED SWELL, HIGHER WELL OFFSHORE DUE TO ELIDA. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PULSE OUT OF THE SW TO W THROUGH GAPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST FRI, LOCALLY STRONG IN THE NORTHERN
GULF FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 100W IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN IN AND AROUND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS
ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 12N, AND NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE
5 TO 8 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF
THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION, PEAKING AT
NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO NEAR GALE-FORCE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE
GULF OF FONSECA. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PULSE
ACROSS THE GULF OF PANAMA INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY, AND AGAIN
TONIGHT. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 600 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES THE WATERS NORTH OF 18N AND W OF 120W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE
TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS N OF 12N AND W OF 120W. SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FT
ARE WITH THESE WINDS. A GROWING BAND OF FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS
WITH 8 TO 11 FT SEAS IS FOUND SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH MAINLY
BETWEEN 115W AND 125W, AND IS WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
ELIDA. MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA
WILL MOVE TO 16.0N 118.8W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 16.7N 120.4W FRI MORNING, 17.9N 121.7W FRI
EVENING, 19.2N 123.1W SAT MORNING, 20.6N 124.4W SAT EVENING, AND
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 22.2N 125.6W SUN MORNING. ELIDA
WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 25.2N 127.6W
EARLY MON.
GR
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