203
WTPZ45 KNHC 162033
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE CURVATURE
NOW SEEN NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET THAT
THE STORM IS DEVELOPING AN EYEWALL OR INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. A
RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED WIND VECTORS AS HIGH AS 47 KT
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS, POSSIBLE UNDERSAMPLING
ISSUES, AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/9 KT. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY, ELIDA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
24 H AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY
A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. SOME OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 H, WHICH
COULD VERIFY IF ELIDA STAYS VERTICALLY STACKED AS IT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER, THIS IS CONSIDERED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHEAR, AND
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER
THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AT 120 H, AND THE 120 H
POINT IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. IF THAT TREND
CONTINUES, SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.
ELIDA HAS ABOUT 36 H OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LEFT BEFORE IT REACHES
DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME, BUT
AS BEFORE THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS A CAUTION FLAG ABOUT HOW MUCH
STRENGTHENING MIGHT OCCUR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 H. BEYOND THAT TIME, COOLER WATERS,
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR, AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE
STEADY WEAKENING, AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY
120 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND OF THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 15.8N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.2N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 18.3N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 26.1N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 29.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BEVEN
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