550
AXPZ20 KNHC 162124
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 16 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.7N 117.4W AT 16/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 18 FT OR 6.0 M. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO NOTED FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W
AND 122W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 122W. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
AND ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY BEFORE
REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 102W, NORTH OF 03N TO ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N95W TO 12N110W, THEN
RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF ELIDA FROM 13N122W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 06N E OF 95W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA,
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W, AND FROM 07N TO 10N W OF
137W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 95W AND 102W, AND FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
102W AND 108W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 640 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERY
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CONTINUE TO IMPACT CLARION ISLANDS. SEAS
ARE 8 TO 9 FT N OF THE ISLAND TO ABOUT 20N, AND 8 TO 12 FT WITHIN
60 NM SW OF THE ISLAND. MARINE CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. MEANWHILE,
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO 14N WITH SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT. A RIDGE PREVAILS
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA,
WHILE A MEANDERING SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND 3 TO
5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BAJA OFFSHORE WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE SE TO S WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF WHILE MAINLY LIGHT
WINDS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SEAS ARE 1 TO 3 FT. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR CONTINUES TO
GENERATE SOME CLOUDINESS, WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS, OVER PARTS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 16.2N 119.6W
FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 17.1N 121.1W FRI
AFTERNOON, 18.3N 122.5W SAT MORNING, 19.7N 123.8W SAT AFTERNOON,
21.3N 124.9W SUN MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
23.0N 126.0W SUN AFTERNOON. ELIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 26.1N 127.9W MON AFTERNOON. AS ELIDA MOVES
TOWARD THE NW, THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN LEADING
TO MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. HOWEVER, SEAS GENERATING BY ELIDA
WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FRI THROUGH SUN. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT,
MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER FORECAST WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL. FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH AT LEAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ALONG 102W IS PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN AND AROUND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48 HOURS,
AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH 7 DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 91W BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM
09N TO 13N, AND NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA, AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 640 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE WATERS NORTH OF 18N AND W OF 120W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS
MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 25N W OF 130W, AND
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE 4 TO 7 FT WITH THESE
WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SW WINDS ARE S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND W OF ELIDA TO ABOUT 130W. MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA
WILL MOVE TO 16.2N 119.6W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 17.1N 121.1W FRI AFTERNOON, 18.3N 122.5W SAT MORNING, 19.7N
123.8W SAT AFTERNOON, 21.3N 124.9W SUN MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 23.0N 126.0W SUN AFTERNOON. ELIDA WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 26.1N 127.9W MON AFTERNOON.
GR
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