426
WTPZ45 KNHC 170236
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ELIDA CONSISTS OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE
BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. EARLIER AMSR2 PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOWED THAT
ELIDA HAS NOT YET SOLIDIFIED AN INNER CORE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY PARTIALLY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES THIS EVENING (49-65 KT). THE STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED
SINCE THE PRIOR ADVISORY, SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.
THE LONG-TERM MOTION OF ELIDA REMAINS WESTWARD (280/9 KT), BUT
RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS PREDICTED. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ELIDA. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, GENERALLY FALLING
BETWEEN HCCA AND THE GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST
TRACK WAS AGAIN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96-120 H, IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE BULK OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
ELIDA HAS A 24-30 H WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR, MOIST
ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE UPDATED NHC
FORECAST STILL SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING, WITH ELIDA PREDICTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. WHILE RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, IT SEEMS LESS LIKELY BASED ON ELIDA'S CURRENT STRUCTURE.
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL
CAUSE ELIDA TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN 96 H. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0300Z 15.9N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.4N 120.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 18.8N 123.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 20.4N 124.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 19/1200Z 22.1N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 27.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0000Z 30.0N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART
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