796
WTPZ45 KNHC 170837
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A 0253 UTC GMI MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED THAT ELIDA WAS ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP A CENTRAL RING OF CONVECTION, BUT THAT PROCESS APPEARS
TO HAVE LARGELY FAILED, LIKELY DUE TO SOME ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
INTO THE CIRCULATION. ASCAT DATA FROM 04-05 UTC ALSO INDICATED
THAT THE WIND FIELD IS QUITE ASYMMETRIC, WITH MOST OF THE
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE CENTER. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED PEAK VECTORS OF 50 KT,
AND COMBINED WITH OTHER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE PREVIOUS
ANALYZED INTENSITY OF 55 KT REMAINS VALID.
CENTER FIXES FROM THE ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT ELIDA CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD, OR 280/9 KT. THAT SAID, A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS
ALREADY ENTRENCHED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES, AND
THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE ELIDA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY SUNDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE TRACK
MODEL TREND IS FOR A FASTER, MORE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY, ESPECIALLY
AT DAYS 4 AND 5, AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.
ELIDA STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATERS AND
IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, IF INNER CORE CONVECTION CAN'T
GET GOING SOON, THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE
WILL DECREASE QUICKLY. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, SHOWING ELIDA
AT HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY 36-48 HOURS DUE TO COOLER WATERS
AND INCREASING SHEAR, AND GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHWARD
MOTION, ELIDA COULD LOSE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 19.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 24.9N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 29.4N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 22/0600Z 33.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BERG
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