955
AXPZ20 KNHC 172133
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 17 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17.1N
121.9W AT 17/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 18
OR 6.0 M. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY
SUNDAY. ELIDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY, AND IT IS NO LONGER
FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER, A VERY LIMITED WINDOW
FOR STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE, AND ELIDA COULD BECOME A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO START OVER THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP97): A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS
ALONG 106W IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 11N. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48
HOURS, AND ALSO THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
10N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. PLEASE, SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SYSTEM.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AT 10N76W TO 07N90W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N106W TO 12N114W,
THEN RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF ELIDA FROM 11N128W TO BEYOND 10N140W.
ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 02.5N TO
09N E OF 90W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN
90W AND 100W, FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W, AND FROM 07N
TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 760 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR 106WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PERIPHERY OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
WATERS NEAR CLARION ISLAND, PARTICULARLY FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN
113W AND 116W. AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATES SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT
BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PRODUCING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WITH MODERATE SEAS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WITH SLIGHT SEAS. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTS OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 17.9N 122.9W
SAT MORNING, 19.4N 124.2W SAT AFTERNOON, 21.0N 125.4W SUN
MORNING, 22.9N 126.5W SUN AFTERNOON, 24.8N 127.3W MON MORNING,
AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 26.9N 128.1W MON AFTERNOON.
ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 30.9N 129.6W TUE
AFTERNOON. AS ELIDA MOVES TOWARD THE NW, THE RIDGE OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL WEAKEN LEADING TO MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS.
HOWEVER, SEAS GENERATING BY ELIDA WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH SUN.
EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
FORECAST WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT TIMES. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 09N TO 12N TO THE WEST OF 88W, AND NEAR THE
GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA, AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE,
EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE
WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST. MODERATE TO
FRESH N TO NE WINDS MAY PULSE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AT NIGHT.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY FRESHENING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BY MIDWEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 760 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
NEAR 106W WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NORTH AND WEST OF ELIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS N
OF 20N AND W OF 120W WITH MODERATE SEAS. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE
OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, WITH 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELLS.
FOR THE FORECAST, AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL
MOVE TO 17.9N 122.9W SAT MORNING, 19.4N 124.2W SAT AFTERNOON,
21.0N 125.4W SUN MORNING, 22.9N 126.5W SUN AFTERNOON, 24.8N
127.3W MON MORNING, AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 26.9N
128.1W MON AFTERNOON. ELIDA WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
30.9N 129.6W TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING ROUGHLY THE
WATERS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W BY TONIGHT.
GR
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