335
WTPZ45 KNHC 180233
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
ELIDA IS STILL AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE A PROMINENT DRY SLOT IS
EVIDENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH, WITH TAFB PROVIDING A T3.5/55 KT
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE NUMBERS RANGING
FROM 51-60 KT. THUS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.
IT APPEARS ELIDA HAS BEGUN MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST, AND
ITS INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9 KT. WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA, ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
LATER THIS WEEKEND WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. ONCE AGAIN, THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE LATEST SIMPLE AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.
ELIDA IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS IT QUICKLY APPROACHES
THE 26 C ISOTHERM. THE STORM WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEGINNING
LATE SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED TO CAUSE ELIDA TO LOSE
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION BY LATE MONDAY, WITH FURTHER WEAKENING
THEREAFTER AS THE REMNANT LOW SPINS DOWN AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0300Z 17.4N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 18.4N 123.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 19.9N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 21.7N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 25.9N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 28.3N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 22/0000Z 32.5N 129.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0000Z 36.0N 131.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER REINHART
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