337
AXPZ20 KNHC 180235
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0150 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
17.4N 122.5W AT 18/0300 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 22 TO 23
FT, OR 6 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND WITHIN 150 NM IN THE WEST
QUADRANT OF ELIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 420 NM IN THE EAST QUADRANT, 300 NM IN
THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE, AND WITHIN 480 NM IN THE SOUTH
QUADRANT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN A BAND BETWEEN 480 NM AND 1200
NM IN THE SW QUADRANT. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER ON SAT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (EP97): A TROPICAL WAVE WITH
AXIS ALONG 105W, OR SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DESCRIBED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
BELOW. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W FROM 01N TO 18N. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS, INCLUDING
THE HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 10N74.5W TO 08N91W TO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 10N105W TO 17N114W, THEN RESUMES SOUTHWEST OF ELIDA FROM
14N125W TO 09N140W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
ELIDA, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE
FOUND WITHIN 420 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO THE EAST
OF ELIDA.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 782 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 105W WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
OUTER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ELIDA HAVE
SHIFTED WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR REMNANT ROUGH
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE
TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF 110W, INCLUDING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
UNDER THE RIDGE, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SPECIAL FEATURES TROPICAL WAVE. SEAS ARE MODERATE ELSEWHERE AWAY
FROM ELIDA, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, REMNANT ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 105W
OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
AND OCCASIONAL FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY FRESHEN OFF BAJA
CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N91W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NEAR
THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA, AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA
RICA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW
SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT
SEAS ARE FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE
TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS ON ITS PERIPHERY IMPACTING THE OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 782 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED NEAR 105W WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NORTH AND WEST OF ELIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 12N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH MODERATE SEAS. WINDS ARE
MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR THE SPECIAL
FEATURES TROPICAL WAVE AT 105W, WITH 5 TO 7 FT IN MIXED SWELLS
ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 18.4N 123.4W
SAT MORNING, 19.9N 124.5W SAT EVENING, 21.7N 125.7W SUN MORNING,
23.7N 126.6W SUN EVENING, 25.9N 127.4W MON MORNING, AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 28.3N 128.2W MON EVENING. ELIDA WILL
WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 32.5N
129.5W LATE TUE. SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING ROUGHLY THE WATERS
FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W BY TONIGHT. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BUILD TO ROUGH NEAR 03.4S120W LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS FRESHEN
SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF ELIDA, AND AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 105W POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS. THESE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AS THAT
OCCURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
LEWITSKY
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