066
WTPZ45 KNHC 180835
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ELIDA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST IT'S LOOKED SO FAR
DURING ITS LIFETIME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
IS STILL A LITTLE THIN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, A
RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN PROXY-VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, IN PARTICULAR AIDT AND DPRINT,
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH, SO ELIDA'S CURRENT
INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 60 KT.
ELIDA IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD, OR
315/8 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NEARLY
ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ON THIS CYCLE LIE ALONG OR TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE, THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD, ESPECIALLY FROM 48 HOURS
ONWARD.
THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE IT ONLY HAS
ABOUT 12 HOURS LEFT OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27 DEGREES
CELSIUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE ACCELERATED BY AN INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. ELIDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 60 HOURS (ON
MONDAY), AND THE REMNANT LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY 5 (LATE WEDNESDAY).
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 18.0N 122.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 19.0N 123.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 20.7N 124.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 22.6N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 24.9N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z 34.5N 128.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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