431
AXPZ20 KNHC 180837
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.0N
122.8W AT 18/0900 UTC, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 22 TO 23
FT, OR AROUND 6 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
120 NM AND 240 NM OF THE CENTER OF ELIDA. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY
EARLY SUN, FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN ON MON. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY, BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELIDA IS LIKELY TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON MON. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (INVEST EP97):
A BROAD 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR 10.5N105.5W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM IN THE NE
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 600 NM IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW.
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS ARE BUILDING
TO 8 FT OR AROUND 2.5 M. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS
SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH 48
HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A GALE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT STARTING LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON, IF NOT
SOONER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105.5W FROM 02N TO 17N. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS, INCLUDING
THE HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 09.5N75W TO 07N91W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP97, NEAR 10.5N105.5W TO 14.5N116.5W, THEN RESUMES SOUTHWEST
OF ELIDA FROM 13N126W TO BEYOND 10N140W. ASIDE FROM THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 01N TO 11N BETWEEN 77W AND
100W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND
FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 97W AND 100W, AND FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN
117W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 782 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, NEAR 10.5N105.5W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
OUTER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ELIDA HAVE
SHIFTED WEST OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT FOR REMNANT ROUGH
SEAS WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC PER
RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA, DUE TO A LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
UNDER THE RIDGE, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE
SPECIAL FEATURES INVEST EP97 LOW PRESSURE AREA. SEAS ARE
MODERATE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM ELIDA, EXCEPT SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, REMNANT ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 105.5W
OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH A GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF NOT SOONER. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND OCCASIONAL FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY
FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N91W PER RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N
TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND NEAR THE AZUERO
PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY
IN S TO SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS,
EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 782 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, NEAR 10.5N105.5W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NORTH AND WEST OF ELIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH MODERATE SEAS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR THE
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA, INVEST EP97, NEAR
10.5N105.5W, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELLS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 19.0N 123.6W
THIS AFTERNOON, 20.7N 124.8W SUN MORNING, 22.6N 125.8W SUN
AFTERNOON, 24.9N 126.6W MON MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND
MOVE TO 27.4N 127.2W MON AFTERNOON, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 30.1N 127.5W TUE
MORNING. ELIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
34.5N 128.1W EARLY WED. SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING ROUGHLY THE
WATERS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W BY EARLY TODAY.
SEAS ARE BUILDING TO ROUGH NEAR 03.4S120W EARLY TODAY AS WINDS
FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF ELIDA, AND AS
INVEST EP97 POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AS THAT OCCURS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
LEWITSKY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page