013
WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ELIDA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A SMALL AREA OF INNER CORE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE HAS A BEEN
A SLIGHT TREND DOWN WITH THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, WITH
ONLY DPRINT NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK
CI-NUMBER HAS THE INTENSITY SET AT 3.5/55 KT, WHICH IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. BASED ON ALL OF THE FIXES, ELIDA'S INTENSITY
HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/9 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT
IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, AND
ONLY VERY SMALL NUDGES TO THE RIGHT WERE MADE PAST 48 HOURS.
THE STORM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY GIVEN THAT IT ONLY
HAS A FEW HOURS LEFT OVER WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES. STEADY WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE
ACCELERATED BY AN INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. ELIDA IS NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION
AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT
LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY
5, AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 18.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 20.1N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.4N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 28.9N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1200Z 35.9N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
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