621
AXPZ20 KNHC 181607
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
18.9N 123.3W AT 18/1500 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE AROUND
24 FT, OR NEAR 7 M. ELIDAS'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED
A BIT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE E SEMICIRCLE, AND BETWEEN
180 AND 240 NM SE OF THE ITS CENTER. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE ON SUN. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY WITH THAT WEAKENING TREND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS. ELIDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MON.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (INVEST EP97):
A BROAD 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR 10N107W. DISORGANIZED NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO
10N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS ARE IN THE
RANGE OF 7 TO 9 FT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
BEGINNING SOONER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS ALONG 107W FROM 02N TO 18N. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS,
INCLUDING THE HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST
OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN PANAMA
AND TO 08N97W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP97 NEAR NEAR
10N107W AND TO 12N113.5W. IT RESUMES SW OF ELIDA AT 10N129W TO
BEYOND 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 77W-84W, ALSO WITHIN 180 NM
NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 90W-96W, WITHIN 120 NM NORTH
OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 86W-90W, AND WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE
TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-87W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 07N TO 11N WEST OF 136W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 785 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, NEAR 10N107W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DUE TO A
LOCALLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.
OTHERWISE, A BROAD NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS UNDER THE RIDGE, EXCEPT MODERATE TO FRESH
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND SIMILAR
WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES INVEST EP97 LOW PRESSURE
AREA. SEAS ARE MODERATE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM ELIDA, EXCEPT SLIGHT
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, REMNANT ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA WELL OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WHICH WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH
OCCASIONALLY ROUGH SEAS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 105.5W
OFFSHORE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS A HIGH CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT, INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS BY LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH A GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON IF NOT SOONER. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND OCCASIONAL FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS MAY
FRESHEN OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE BY MIDWEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N91W PER OVERNIGHT SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER
DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA.
SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA, AND NEAR THE
AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS,
PRIMARILY IN S TO SW SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA. ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 782 NAUTICAL MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, NEAR 10.5N105.5W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
A RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AND NORTH AND WEST OF ELIDA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH MODERATE SEAS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR THE
SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA, INVEST EP97, NEAR
10.5N105.5W, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELLS ACROSS THE OPEN
WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 10.1N
124.1W THIS EVENING, 21.9N 125.2W SUN MORNING, 24.0N 126.1W SUN
EVENING, 26.4N 126.7W MON MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE
TO 28.9N 127.2W MON EVENING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR
31.4N 127.5W TUE MORNING. ELIDA WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY
AS IT MOVES TO 35.9N 128.0W EARLY WED.. SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION, COVERING
ROUGHLY THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 113W AND 130W BY EARLY
TODAY. SEAS ARE BUILDING TO ROUGH NEAR 03.4S120W EARLY TODAY AS
WINDS FRESHEN SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF ELIDA,
AND AS INVEST EP97 POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS. THESE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AS THAT
OCCURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
AGUIRRE
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