530
WTPZ45 KNHC 182035
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION FOR ELIDA HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. MORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE INNER CORE, WHILE STILL RETAINING THE DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AS WELL. HOWEVER, THE INNER CORE
IS STILL RAGGED. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED PRESENTATION AND
STEADY STATE FIXES, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 60 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL TURNING POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS
NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/9 KT. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT
IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCAMPED OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT, AND
ONLY VERY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WERE MADE.
THE STORM HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY WITH ONLY A FEW
HOURS LEFT OVER WARM OCEAN TEMPERATURES. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT, WHICH COULD BE ACCELERATED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT A DAY. ELIDA IS
NOW EXPECTED TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN
ABOUT 60 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW'S CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY DAY 5, AROUND LATE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 23.0N 125.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 25.2N 126.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 27.6N 127.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/1800Z 37.0N 127.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI
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