347
AXPZ20 KNHC 190017 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR
19.7N 124.0W AT 18/2100 UTC, MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. PEAK SEAS REMAIN AROUND 24
FT, OR ABOUT 7 M. ELIDAS'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN A WIDE BAND FROM 17N TO
19N BETWEEN 122W AND 124W AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 124W AND 127W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF ELIDA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 117W AND 126W, AND ALSO
WELL TO ITS SOUTH FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W. ELIDA IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY LATE SUN. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT WITH THAT
WEAKENING TREND FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. ELIDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON MON. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
STORM WARNING CENTRAL AND WESTERN EAST PACIFIC (INVEST EP97):
A BROAD 1008 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO NEAR 11N107W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W
AND 111W AND ALSO FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. ASSOCIATED
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 30 KT AS DEPICTED BY A RECENT SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETER DATA PASS. SEAS WITH THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 7 TO 9 FT
RANGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
FORM TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY WHILE IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LATEST TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVES THIS SYSTEM A HIGH CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION, EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AND A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT BEGINNING LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO EARLY MON, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLY BEGINNING
SOONER. PLEASE READ THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE PREVIOUS DESCRIBE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 107W FROM 02N TO 18N
HAS TRANSITIONED TO THE BROAD 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 11N107W.
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS,
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTHWEST COLOMBIA SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PANAMA/COLOMBIA BORDER
TO 07N87W TO 08N99W TO LOW PRESSURE, INVEST EP97, NEAR 11N107W AND
TO 12N112W. IT RESUMES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ELIDA AT 09N128W TO
08N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N
BETWEEN 77W-83W, WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 83W-88W,
AND WITHIN 180 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-91W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN
91W-101W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
07N TO 11N BETWEEN 137W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 812 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP97, NEAR 101107W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOCALLY
ROUGH SEAS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, RATHER BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS ARE MODERATE OR WEAKER
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS UNDER THE RIDGE, EXCEPT MODERATE
TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES INVEST EP97 LOW
PRESSURE AREA. SEAS ARE MODERATE ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM ELIDA, EXCEPT
SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHERN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE FORECAST WATERS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUN
EVENING. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS OF 7 TO 11 FT, MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER
FORECAST WATERS. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF AT TIMES. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE OF 1008 MB NEAR 11N107W HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION, EXPECT
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA,
AND NEAR THE AZUERO PENINSULA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA. VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS
PULSING NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS.
MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST SWELL ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 812 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, INVEST
EP97, NEAR 11N107W, WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
WATERS NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND NORTH AND WEST OF ELIDA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ELIDA SUPPORTS MODERATE TO
FRESH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 120W, WITH
MODERATE SEAS AWAY FROM ELIDA. WINDS ARE MAINLY MODERATE OR WEAKER
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT NEAR THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE AREA,
INVEST EP97, NEAR 11N107W, WITH 5 TO 7 FT SEAS IN MIXED SWELL ACROSS
THE OPEN WATERS AWAY FROM ELIDA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 21.0N
124.6W LATE TONIGHT, TO NEAR 23.0N 125.7W SUN AFTERNOON, TO NEAR
LATE SUN NIGHT, TO NEAR 27.6N 127.0W MON AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 30.1N 127.3W TUE MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32.9N 127.6W BY TUE AFTERNOON.
SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION, COVERING ROUGHLY THE WATERS FROM 10N TO 26N BETWEEN
113W AND 133W THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE MOSTLY ROUGH OVER SOME OF THE
FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO INVEST EP97 IS
APPEARING TO BECOME ESTABLISED. THESE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS AS THAT OCCURS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OPEN WATERS GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
AGUIRRE
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