632
WTPZ41 KNHC 190233
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 PM MST SAT JUL 18 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUS,
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
TAFB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A
MORE WESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THE HWRF
AND HMON SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER MODELS AFTER 36
H. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION'S RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WIND IS 70-100 N MI, AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THIS
TO CONTRACT OR FOR THE CYCLONE TO FORM A NEW INNER WIND CORE.
ONCE THE SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED, THOUGH, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING, PARTICULARLY AFTER 24
H. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN TO 80
KT BY 60 H, AND THIS IS AT THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST 95-KT PEAK INTENSITY IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, BUT THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE
SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 72-96 H. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START BY 120 H SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE
CYCLONE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 11.3N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 11.9N 110.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 12.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 13.4N 114.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 14.6N 116.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 15.4N 117.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 16.0N 119.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 16.7N 122.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
FORECASTER BEVEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page