699
WTPZ45 KNHC 190235
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE
ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
BELOW 26 DEGREES C. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DIMINISHING
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T3.5/55 KT, IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE LATEST OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THE
DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11 KT. ELIDA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY
A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST WERE REQUIRED.
ELIDA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 25
DEGREES C AND WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WILL LEAD TO A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 60 H. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 4
WELL WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0300Z 20.6N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 26.4N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 29.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0000Z 33.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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