638
AXPZ20 KNHC 190258
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 18 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E: CENTERED NEAR 11.3N
109.1W AT 19/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 10 TO
11 FT OR AROUND 3.5 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 115W.
ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 20 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 11
FT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON SUN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML
AND THE LATEST SIX-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY
AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 124.8W AT 19/0300 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 26 FT OR 8 M.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS MUCH OF THE WATERS FROM 17N
TO 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 129W, WITH ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO
20.5N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWARD. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELIDA
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY EARLY TUE AND DISSIPATE BY LATE WED.
SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA AT 10N74.5W TO 10N86W TO 08N98W TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E NEAR 11N108.5W TO 15N116W, THEN RESUMES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ELIDA FROM 16N119W TO 09N140W. OTHER THAN THE
CONVECTION DISCUSSION ABOVE AND ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA AND SIX-E,
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 14N
BETWEEN 77W AND 90W, AND FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 104W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 119W AND 135W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 843 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE, RATHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. OUTER
ASSOCIATED ROUGH SEAS FROM ELIDA ARE NEAR THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE
WATERS BOUNDARY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ARE FINALLY PULLING AWAY.
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE, WITH ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E JUST BEYOND THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE SLIGHT IN
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR
THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
14N, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE TO
LESS THAN 8 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, RECENTLY UPGRADED
TROPICAL STORM SIX-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR
11.9N 110.7W SUN MORNING, MOVE TO 12.6N 112.9W SUN EVENING, 13.4N
114.7W MON MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 14.6N 116.4W
MON EVENING, 15.4N 117.9W TUE MORNING, AND 16.0N 119.4W TUE
EVENING. SIX-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 16.7N
122.8W LATE WED. ASSOCIATED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT TIMES. WINDS MAY
FRESHEN NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MIDWEEK AS THE GRADIENT
TEMPORARILY TIGHTENS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO 09N92W
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA AT TIMES. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS
OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 843 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON RECENTLY UPGRADED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 700 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BOTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS, AS WELL AS
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WITH AND ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 07N95W. OTHERWISE, BROAD
RIDGING PREVAILS BOTH WEST AND EAST OF ELIDA. WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 130W, ALONG
WITH 6 TO 9 FT SEAS. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH, CONCENTRATED NEAR ALL THREE SIGNIFICANT FEATURES
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 21.9N 125.7W
SUN MORNING, 24.0N 126.6W SUN EVENING, 26.4N 127.3W MON MORNING,
29.0N 127.7W MON EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 31.4N 127.8W TUE MORNING, AND THEN MOVE TO
33.9N 127.8W TUE EVENING. ELIDA WILL DISSIPATE LATE WED. MEANWHILE,
RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM SIX-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.9N 110.7W SUN MORNING, MOVE TO 12.6N
112.9W SUN EVENING, 13.4N 114.7W MON MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A
HURRICANE NEAR 14.6N 116.4W MON EVENING, 15.4N 117.9W TUE
MORNING, AND 16.0N 119.4W TUE EVENING. SIX-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 16.7N 122.8W LATE WED. ASSOCIATED
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ELIDA AND
THE WAKE OF SIX-E INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS
GOING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
LEWITSKY
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