694
WTPZ45 KNHC 190833
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER,
A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF
AROUND 40 KT, WHILE THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
FROM TAFB REMAINED AT T3.5/55 KT. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION SINCE THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS, THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE
DATA.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 330/11 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH ELIDA LOOKS A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED ON GOES-18 SATELLITE
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES C AND WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR
SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 21.4N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 22.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 27.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 30.2N 127.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z 32.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/0600Z 35.6N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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