127
WTPZ41 KNHC 190837
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2026
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AFTER THE PRIOR ADVISORY, AN
ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS BROAD
AND IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS T2.5/35 KT, BUT THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE STILL IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
AT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 290/12 KT.
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER MEXICO, THOUGH A WEAKNESS EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST,
CREATED BY THE DEPARTING TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD, REMOVING
THIS WEAKNESS. THUS, WHILE TD6-E MAY GAIN A BIT OF LATITUDE IN THE
24-48 H PERIOD, A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY EVEN TURN A BIT
LEFTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PRIOR TRACK FORECAST, BUT
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE TVCN AND GDMI TRACK AIDS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS IT MAY TAKE 12-24 H
FOR THE DEPRESSION'S WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN ITS SHORT-TERM STRUCTURE,
THESE FACTORS ALL APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR, AMPLE MOISTURE, VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES). THUS, SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AFTER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ESPECIALLY FROM 36-60 H WHERE A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPLICITLY FORECAST. THERE IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR
BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION
TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD OCEAN WATERS CHURNED UP BY THE CIRCULATION
OF TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER THIS
COOL WAKE, IT COULD LIMIT THE STORM'S PEAK INTENSITY BEYOND 72 H,
WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWING IT CLOSE TO STRADDLING THE 26 C
ISOTHERM. FOR NOW, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 95 KT IN 72 H, JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY,
WITH SOME MODEST WEAKENING SHOWN IN DAYS 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE LATEST GDMI AND HCCA INTENSITY
AIDS, BUT IS NOTABLY HIGHER THAN THE HAFS-A/B GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/0900Z 12.1N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 12.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 13.2N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.5N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 16.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 18.2N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
FORECASTER PAPIN
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