735
AXPZ20 KNHC 190838
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E: CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 110.6W AT 19/0900
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 FT OR JUST
LESS THAN 3.5 M. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED
BETWEEN 90 NM AND 300 NM IN THE NORTH QUADRANT, AND WITHIN 330 NM
IN THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. STEADY TO RAPID
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND
BECOME A HURRICANE BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST SIX-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: CENTERED NEAR 21.4N 125.2W AT 19/0900 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 23 FT OR 7 M.
NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150
NM OF THE CENTER OF ELIDA. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWARD. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ELIDA
MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE BY LATE
WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
WEBSITE - HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE
LATEST ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75.5W TO 10N85W TO 08N91W TO 10N107W,
THEN RESUMES SSW OF ELIDA FROM 14N124W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 00N TO 11N
BETWEEN 77W AND 91W, AND WITHIN 270 NM SSE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
WEST OF 124W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO
17.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 101W, FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND
105W, AND FROM 08.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 647 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 856 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS
CONFIRMED BY RECENT ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETER PASSES.
OTHERWISE, RATHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. OUTER ASSOCIATED ROUGH
SEAS FROM ELIDA ARE NEAR THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS BOUNDARY
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ARE FINALLY PULLING AWAY. MODERATE SEAS
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE, WITH ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E JUST BEYOND THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
WHILE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE NORTHERN PORTION.
VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF 14N, AS WELL AS NEAR THE
COAST OF OAXACA AND GUERRERO WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 12.5N
112.3W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 13.2N 114.4W MON MORNING, 14.4N
116.2W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.5N 117.8W
TUE MORNING, 16.3N 119.3W TUE AFTERNOON, AND 16.8N 120.6W WED
MORNING. SIX-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
17.3N 124.2W EARLY THU. ASSOCIATED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE
SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT
TIMES. WINDS MAY FRESHEN NEARSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MIDWEEK
AS THE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY TIGHTENS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS, PRIMARILY IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL, DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS AND MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING NEAR THE GULF
OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF
OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS IN SW SWELL ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN
THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEARSHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF
GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 647 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 856 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BOTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS, AS WELL AS
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WITH AND ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 08N97W. OTHERWISE, BROAD
RIDGING PREVAILS BOTH WEST AND EAST OF ELIDA. WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W, ALONG
WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS THERE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH, CONCENTRATED NEAR ALL THREE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ELIDA WILL MOVE TO 22.7N
126.0W THIS AFTERNOON, 24.8N 126.9W MON MORNING, 27.5N 127.5W
MON AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW JUST NORTH OF THE
DISCUSSION WATERS NEAR 30.2N 127.7W TUE MORNING, 32.9N 127.9W
TUE AFTERNOON, AND 35.6N 127.9W WED MORNING. ELIDA WILL DISSIPATE
EARLY THU. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E WILL STRENGTHEN
TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 12.5N 112.3W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO
13.2N 114.4W MON MORNING, 14.4N 116.2W MON AFTERNOON, STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.5N 117.8W TUE MORNING, 16.3N 119.3W TUE
AFTERNOON, AND 16.8N 120.6W WED MORNING. SIX-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE
IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 17.3N 124.2W EARLY THU. ASSOCIATED
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. MODERATE
TO FRESH WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ELIDA AND
THE WAKE OF SIX-E INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE
IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN
WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
LEWITSKY
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