063
WTPZ45 KNHC 191440
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ELIDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO HOLD ON TO
SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.
A 0743 UTC OSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS SAMPLED SOME OF THE PEAK
SURFACE WINDS AROUND 45 KT. HOWEVER, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB REMAINED AT T3.5/55 KT. GIVEN THE
CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE OTHER DATA ON HAND, THE
INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 50 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/8 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A FAIRLY GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL PERIODS.
AS SUCH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A GOOD PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE
IMAGES, THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES C. OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN ADDITION,
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. ELIDA IS FORECAST TO
LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 26.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.6N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 31.5N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0000Z 34.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1200Z 36.0N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page