995
WTPZ41 KNHC 191442
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
800 AM MST SUN JUL 19 2026
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, BUT
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET VERY PROMINENT AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
ALSO, MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE IS NOT
WELL DEFINED AT THE MOMENT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE SATELLITE CONSENSUS, SATCON,
ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KT. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE DEPARTING
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA. AS ELIDA MOVES FARTHER NORTH, THE RIDGE IS
LIKELY TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS,
HCCA, TRACK.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE
CONDUCTIVE FOR STRENGTHENING, WITH ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE
COOLING OF OCEAN WATERS DUE TO THE PREVIOUS PASSAGE OF TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS REFLECTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE CYCLONE
BECOMING A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS
SOLUTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 12.4N 111.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 12.8N 113.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 13.7N 115.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 15.9N 118.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 16.9N 121.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 17.5N 125.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 18.4N 130.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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