913
WTNT42 KNHC 191452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026
1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF AMERICA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS NOW
DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY REMAINS PATCHY, LIKELY DUE TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FROM
ITS NORTHEAST, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN BANDS ON ITS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES TO JUSTIFY
THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CIRCULATION IS SPRAWLING
AND STILL WEAK, HOWEVER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND EARLIER
ASCAT DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT AND THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY, AND THEIR DATA WILL BE
HELPFUL TO BETTER ASSESS THE SYSTEM’S INITIAL STRUCTURE.
THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW SINCE IT HAS
ONLY RECENTLY BECOME WELL DEFINED, BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 3 KT. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, ANOTHER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S., AND A TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THERE. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TO THE
WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS THE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. BUILDS EASTWARD, TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR
OR ACROSS THE GULF COAST DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF
THE WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES A TOUCH TO THE SOUTH OF
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE USUALLY
BEST-PERFORMING AIDS HCCA, TVCN, AND GDMI.
THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, NEARBY DRY AIR, AND SOME
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT TERM.
NONETHELESS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ONCE
IT TURNS WESTWARD, HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE CIRCULATION IS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST LIES TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, HOWEVER,
THERE IS A LOW AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW
MUCH LAND INTERACTION WILL TAKE PLACE.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND
COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, WHERE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
2. INTERESTS IN ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, LOUISIANA, AND
TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM, AS WATCHES COULD
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THAT AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
3. AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM WESTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, MISSISSIPPI, AND LOUISIANA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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