231
AXPZ20 KNHC 191604
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E: CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 111.7W AT 19/1500
UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 11 FT OR JUST
LESS THAN 3.5 M. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
ORGANIZED. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS RATHER ELONGATED
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE
NE SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW
SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 111W-117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 108W- 112W.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN IS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY, THEN BECOME A HURRICANE BY MON NIGHT
OR TUE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
SIX-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA: CENTERED NEAR 22.2N 125.3W AT 19/1500 UTC,
MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. PEAK SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 23 FT OR 7 M.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SW AND W QUADRANTS.
NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER
IN THE E SEMICIRCLE, AND ALSO FROM 24N TO 25N BETWEEN 123W AND
126W. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT TURNS
FURTHER NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STEADY WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE CYCLONE IS
LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BY LATE WED. SWELLS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
ELIDA NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF COLOMBIA TO THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER, AND
TO 09N82W TO 09N91W TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E TO 10N127W AND
TO BEYOND 09N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 240 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 129W-140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 87W-91W, AND WITHIN 180 NM
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 123W-127W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 640 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 850 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS NOTED IN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA
PASSES. OTHERWISE, RATHER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS. OUTER ASSOCIATED
ROUGH SEAS FROM ELIDA ARE NEAR THE FAR OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS
BOUNDARY OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ARE FINALLY PULLING AWAY.
MODERATE SEAS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE, WITH ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E JUST BEYOND THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. SEAS ARE SLIGHT IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, WHILE WINDS ARE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
NORTHERN PORTION. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE
MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS BETWEEN 101W
AND 112W. THIS ACTIVITY REACHES TO ALONG THE COAST OF GUERRERO.
IT MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, SEAS GENERATED BY ELIDA WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE
TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIX-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 12.8N
113.2W THIS EVENING, MOVE TO 13.7N 115.1W MON MORNING, TO NEAR
14.9N 116.8W MON EVENING, THEN STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR
15.9N 118.4W TUE MORNING, AND MOVER TO NEAR 16.5N 120.0W TUE
EVENING, AND TO NEAR 16.9N 121.3W WED MORNING. SIX-E WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO NEAR 17.5N 125.2W EARLY THU.
ASSOCIATED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. FRESH
TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS AT TIMES. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AT TIMES. WINDS MAY FRESHEN NEARSHORE
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE MIDWEEK AS THE GRADIENT TEMPORARILY
TIGHTENS THERE. LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP WELL
SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 09N92W. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. SEAS ARE 6 TO 9 FT
DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ARE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODERATE OR WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE
SEAS, PRIMARILY IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL, DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, EXCEPT SLIGHT SEAS IN THE
IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND NEAR SHORE WESTERN
COLOMBIA. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT NEAR THE MONSOON
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO WINDS AND
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS PULSING
NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA. GENTLE TO MODERATE N WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE GULF OF PANAMA WITH SLIGHT TO MODERATE SEAS. MODERATE OR
WEAKER WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTHWEST WELL ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS
AND NEARSHORE WESTERN COLOMBIA WHERE SLIGHT SEAS ARE FORECAST.
LOOKING AHEAD, LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF
MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, AND
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E, CENTERED ABOUT 640 NAUTICAL MILES
SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND ON TROPICAL
STORM ELIDA, CENTERED ABOUT 850 NAUTICAL MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
BOTH OF THE ABOVE SYSTEMS DOMINATE THE OPEN WATERS, AS WELL AS
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WITH AND ASSOCIATED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS NEAR 08N97W. OTHERWISE, BROAD
RIDGING PREVAILS BOTH WEST AND EAST OF ELIDA. WINDS ARE MAINLY
MODERATE OR WEAKER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS ALONG
WITH MODERATE SEAS, EXCEPT MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN 105W AND 125W, ALONG
WITH 7 TO 9 FT SEAS THERE. VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IS PRESENT
NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH, CONCENTRATED NEAR ALL THREE SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM ELIDA WILL MOVE TO NEAR 23.7N
126.0W THIS EVENING, TO NEAR 26.0N 126.8W MON MORNING, TO NEAR
28.6N 127.4W MON EVENING, WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 31.5N
127.4W TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATE EARLY THU. SIX-E WILL CHANGE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO 17.5N 125.2W EARLY THU.
ASSOCIATED INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE WATERS WELL OFFSHORE SOUTHWEST MEXICO.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL WATERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF
ELIDA AND THE WAKE OF SIX-E INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN MARINE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
LOOKING AHEAD, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
AGUIRRE
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