428
WTPZ41 KNHC 192036
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062026
200 PM MST SUN JUL 19 2026
THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED IN APPEARANCE, WITH LESS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ELONGATION THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY. A
RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM SHOWED A BELIEVABLE 32-KT SURFACE
WIND VECTOR OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, AND TAFB GAVE A SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE AIDT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS
INFORMATION, THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO
ON THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW OVER ITS SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION, BUT THE
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11 KT. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE,
ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING TROPICAL STORM ELIDA, TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ELIDA'S
WAKE. HOWEVER, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE JUST ENOUGH REMAINING
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO INDUCE A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION OF FAUSTO DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.
THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FAUSTO LOOKS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A VERY
MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR MASS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION
(RI) INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL LIKELIHOOD OF
RI, AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST EXPLICITLY SHOWS RI
OCCURRING IN 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD
OCCUR SOONER DEPENDING ON HOW SOON FAUSTO DEVELOPS A
WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 12.4N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 13.1N 114.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 14.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 15.4N 117.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 16.3N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 16.7N 120.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 23/1800Z 17.6N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 24/1800Z 18.5N 131.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
FORECASTER PASCH
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