844
WTPZ45 KNHC 192039
TCDEP5
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052026
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER
CORE OF ELIDA HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE
CONVECTIVE WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN CONNECTION TO THE CYCLONE MOVING
OVER THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAME IN AT T3.0/55 KT, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
ASCAT PASS, WHILE PARTIAL, DID SAMPLE OF PEAK SURFACE WINDS AWAY
FROM THE CENTER OF AROUND 45 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY FOR ELIDA HAS
BEEN HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 340/8 KT. ELIDA IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WHILE GRADUALLY ACCELERATING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THERE WAS A SLIGHT
NUDGE TO THE WEST WITH THIS ADVISORY, BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS AN OVERALL GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL PERIODS.
AS SUCH ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
FORECAST TRACK.
THE CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE OF ELIDA LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN
BEFORE, AND THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS STARTING TO
WEAKEN. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 25
DEGREES C, AND OCEAN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FURTHER AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IN
ADDITION, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
ELIDA IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT
LOW ON TUESDAY, WITH THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER KATZ/PASCH
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